Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
